A Beginner’s Guide Part 6 - Maximizing Free Bet Conversion
Turning Promos into Profit
Hey folks!
You’ve got those enticing free bets from your sportsbook, but how do you turn them into real, withdrawable cash? Today, we’re diving into the theory and strategy behind free bet conversion, ensuring you get the most out of those promotional offers. If you’re new to terms like “EV” or “vig,” check out our Beginner’s Guide to Sportsbooks to get up to speed.
What is Free Bet Conversion?
Free bet conversion is all about turning the value of a free bet into actual cash. The goal is to maximize your expected value (EV) from these free bets by strategically choosing your wagers.
The Basics: Understanding Free Bets
A free bet lets you place a bet without using your own money. If you win, you only get the winnings, not the stake. For example, placing a $50 free bet on odds of +200 (3.00 in decimal) wins you $100, but you don’t get the $50 stake back.
You will often see this noted on Twitter as FB to note free back conversion rate. Generally speaking, I tried to find bets over 90% used for free bets, unless of course they are expiring soon.
The Theory Behind Free Bet Conversion
To maximize the value of your free bets, you should target longshots. Let’s break it down:
Longshots for Higher EV: Betting on higher odds increases your expected value. For instance, a $50 free bet on a +900 underdog has a 10% chance of winning $450, giving you a $45 EV. Compare this to a -900 favorite, which wins 90% of the time but only gives you an $5.56 payout, resulting in a $5 EV.
Optimal Odds Range: Betting on very high odds like +900 can be challenging due to the vig (the sportsbook’s cut) and low win probability. Instead, targeting odds in the +300 to +700 range often strikes a balance between a reasonable win probability and a good EV.
Step-by-Step Free Bet Conversion
1. Find a Suitable Bet
Look for bets with odds between +300 and +700. This range provides a good mix of high potential returns and a decent chance of winning. You might find these odds on specific outcomes like a player scoring a touchdown or hitting a home run. I also like putting free bets often on book promos, more about that later, or on futures.
2. Place Your Free Bet
Use your free bet on these higher odds. For example, if you have a $50 free bet and place it on a +500 outcome, if you win, you get $250.
3. Hedging (Optional)
For those who want to reduce risk, consider hedging. This involves placing a counter bet on another sportsbook or a betting exchange against your original bet. While hedging might slightly reduce your profit, it helps ensure you don’t walk away empty-handed.
For example, if you place a $50 free bet on an outcome at +500, you can hedge by betting against that outcome. If the free bet wins, you profit from the free bet, minus the cost of your hedge. If it loses, you win your hedge bet, reducing your losses.
Personally, I rarely do this, but it is an option.
Using Book Boosts for Free Bets
One of the best opportunities for using your free bets is book boosts. These are special promotions where the sportsbook enhances the odds on a particular bet, giving you more value for your wager.
Why Book Boosts are Great: Book boosts often offer better-than-market odds. This makes them ideal for free bets since you’re maximizing your potential payout. Also, these are much quicker than trying to custom build free options.
Example: Suppose a sportsbook boosts the odds of a Bijan Robinson scoring the first touchdown from +500 to +700. This may not be a positive EV play compared with Circa, but it may be a good free bet option. Using your free bet on this boosted odds can significantly increase your expected value.
Strategy: Always keep an eye on the promotions and boosted odds offered by sportsbooks. These can be great opportunities to place your free bets on outcomes with better potential returns, enhancing your overall profitability. I will typically tweet out good free options or post them on our discord.
When I first started using free bet conversion, I was pumped by the idea of longshot bets. I remember placing a $50 free bet on a book boost where the odds for a player scoring the first touchdown were enhanced from +400 to +600. The thrill when the player scored the touchdown and I pocketed $300 was amazing. Not every bet hit, but over time, this strategy significantly boosted my bankroll.
Key Points to Remember
Look for Tight Markets: Find bets where the odds are competitive across multiple sportsbooks to minimize the vig.
Parlay for Value: Sometimes, parlaying bets can create a longshot with better overall odds.
Track Your Bets: Keep a record of your bets and conversions to analyze and refine your strategy.
Leverage Book Boosts: Utilize boosted odds promotions to maximize the value of your free bets.
Final Thoughts
Free bet conversion is a powerful way to build your betting bankroll without risking your own money. By targeting higher odds within the +300 to +700 range, and taking advantage of book boosts, you can maximize your expected value and see significant returns over time.
Happy betting, and may the odds be ever in your favor!
P.S. Got questions or need more tips? Drop a comment below, and let’s chat!
That’s your guide to free bet conversion! Remember, it’s all about finding the right balance between risk and reward. Practice makes perfect, so keep at it and watch your bankroll grow. Happy betting!
Free Play of the Day!
I’m going to illustrate some of these concepts in action.
Here’s an odds boost ESPN is offering.
At the time I calculated this, here is what Pinnacle has for those lines. As you recall, this is one of the sharpest books and a great standard for comparison
In calculating this boost against those odds on Crazy Ninja Mike, we get the following calculation (using worst case scenario).
Results:
Worst-case: (Multiplicative)
Leg#1 (-104); Market Juice = 2.0%; Fair Value = +100 (50.0%)
Leg#2 (-120); Market Juice = 1.9%; Fair Value = -115 (53.5%)
Leg#3 (-106); Market Juice = 2.0%; Fair Value = -102 (50.5%)
Final Odds (+610); Σ(Market Juice) = 5.85%; Fair Value = +641 (13.5%)
Summary; EV% = -4.1% (FB = 82.4%)
As you can see, you wouldn’t want to use cash on this bag because the negative Value. However, in the free back conversion rate is an 82.4% to pinnacle. So, like I said above, I probably wouldn’t take this unless I expiring on ESPN. If I didn’t, I would probably wait for something 90+.
In my next post, I’ll talk more about calculation, but this should be decent primer for that.