Beginners Guide #17: Building a Game Script for Same Game Parlays (SGPs)
Stay Congruent, but Don’t Be Afraid to Get Contrarian
If you’ve been increasing your bet volume during football season so far, you’ve probably noticed that most sportsbooks offer parlay boost tokens every week. These boosts can crank up your payout, but only if you’re smart about how you build your parlay. You don’t want to just chase the best numbers—you want to build a congruent game script while leaving room for a contrarian twist. That’s where you unlock real value.
In a previous post, I talked about how correlation is crucial in SGPs. If you’re betting on Patrick Mahomes to go over 300 passing yards, it only makes sense to pair that with, say, Rashee Rice going over his receiving yards. Why? Because if one of those hits, the other likely will too. That's correlation at its simplest.
But here’s the thing: if you only build perfectly correlated parlays, you’re leaving money on the table. Let’s talk about how you can sprinkle in a contrarian bet to give your parlay some extra juice without blowing up your entire narrative.
Building a Congruent Game Script: The Basics
First off, what do I mean by a “congruent game script”? It’s all about creating a parlay where every bet logically fits the same storyline for how you think the game will play out. Let’s use the Falcons vs. Chiefs game as an example.
You might believe the game will turn into a high-scoring shootout, so your SGP might look like this:
Chiefs to win
Mahomes over 275.5 passing yards
Kirk Cousins over 300 passing yards
Over 53.5 total points
Everything here follows a consistent narrative—both QBs are throwing for big yardage, the game stays competitive, and points are piling up. If you’re right about how the game unfolds, this parlay has a solid chance of hitting because each leg is correlated. It’s a congruent script where everything aligns.
Adding a Contrarian Element for a Bigger Payout
But here’s where things get interesting. If all your bets are perfectly correlated, the payout might not be as high as you’d like. To pump up those odds, you can add one or two contrarian elements—something that doesn’t perfectly fit the game script but is still realistic.
Take that same Chiefs and Falcons game. You’ve already built a parlay that assumes a high-scoring contest. Now, what if you throw in an alternate under, say under 58.5 total points?
Why? Because the books love to reward you for taking on what they perceive as extra risk. Suddenly, the payout on your parlay jumps from something like +600 to +1200. But this alternate under isn’t as risky as it looks—maybe the game ends 28-27, which is still a high-scoring affair but falls under that alternate total. Your whole narrative doesn’t get blown up, but your payout just doubled.
Example 1: Betting Against the Obvious
Let’s dive into a real-life example from a couple of weeks ago. I bet on Patrick Mahomes to throw for under 283.5 passing yards, but I paired that with Rashee Rice to go over 50.5 receiving yards. On the surface, this looks like a contradiction. If Mahomes is having a rough day, how does Rice hit his over?
But think about it—Rice could still snag a few crossing routes even if Mahomes not racking up the yards overall. In fact, that’s exactly what happened. The result? I got a payout around +375 instead of +180 if I had taken both players to hit their overs. Same narrative, but by adding a small contrarian element, I nearly doubled my payout.
Why This Strategy Works
So why does this strategy pay off so well? Simple—books pay you more for adding uncorrelated bets. They know that when all your picks are correlated, the likelihood of your parlay hitting is higher, so they’ll offer lower payouts. But when you add a bet that doesn’t perfectly align—like Kyler Murray under on passing yards while Marvin Harrison Jr. goes over—you’re perceived as taking on more risk, and the odds reflect that.
But as we’ve seen, that added risk isn’t as big as it seems if you choose your contrarian spots wisely. The goal is to find reasonable contradictions—bets that don't fully derail your game script but add enough unpredictability to boost your payout.
Finding the Balance
Of course, you don’t want to go overboard. If you’re betting on the Falcons to win, you don’t want to pair that with something like Kirk Cousins under 200 passing yards—that’s just asking for a miracle. But subtle moves, like adding an alternate under or fading one player while backing another, is where the real value lies.
Pro tip: Backing one running back and fading another on Fanduel often is a very attractive strategy for boosts or no sweats.
Final Thoughts: Think Outside the Box, But Don’t Blow Up Your Script
So, the next time you’re taking advantage of those parlay boost tokens that sportsbooks are throwing at you, start by building a congruent game script. Make sure your core bets tell a logical story. But don’t be afraid to toss in a little contrarian twist to juice up your payout.
It’s not about betting wild—just taking a slight detour from the narrative you’ve built. Whether it’s an alternate under, fading a key player, or betting on something like the Giants winning without running the ball, these small moves can turn a solid parlay into a massive payday.
Just remember: balance is everything. Don’t throw in so many contradictions that your parlay cancels itself out. But when you find the right mix, you’ll see your payouts grow without making your parlay feel like a complete long shot.
What’s your next SGP going to look like? Drop a comment below if you’ve hit on any creative parlays lately. Let’s hear how you’re mixing it up!