Explain A Promo #2 - Hard Rock's 3 Inning Protection
A Sneaky Good Builder
Promo #2 – Hard Rock’s 3-Inning Protection
Here are the Basics
Opt-In on the Promo Page!
Place a pregame single cash bet on an MLB moneyline market, and get a Bonus Bet back up to $100 if your team leads after 3 innings but doesn't win the game.
Parlay Option: You can also build a parlay with MLB winner markets. If one leg loses but the team led after 3 innings, you’ll get the Bonus Bet.
This is a solid promo to target if you're looking for ways to pad your bankroll or get around the usual betting limits on Hard Rock.
My Approach
Focusing on Under-the-Radar Promos
In this series, I'm diving into promos that often fly under the radar. While DraftKings and FanDuel have very popular promos you should play and play consistently, I’m going to hit ones that are often overlooked and offer particular value for new bettors. These are the kinds of promos that can give you a nice edge if you know how to use them. And when it comes to under the radar... I don’t think many people are playing this. I Googled it, and a tweet of mine was the top hit, so... yeah, definitely under the radar, lol.
Let’s talk strategy on how to best capitalize on this 3-inning protection. This promo is all about leveraging the potential for a strong start by your team, even if they can’t hold on to the win.
What I Like:
High Max Payout: Up to $100 back in Bonus Bets is a big plus. That’s a decent chunk of change to reinvest, especially if you can roll it into a boost or another favorable bet. See more on this limit later.
If you get the Bonus Bet back, I've found this to be a nice workaround for any betting limits you might run into on this book, especially with their promos, which are occasionally pretty strong.
What to Look For:
Sharp Lines: Finding a good line compared to Pinnacle or Circa is crucial here. This should go without saying, but it's worth the reminder. The better your line, the higher your expected value (EV) on this bet.
3-Inning Market Favorites: Ideally, you want to find a team that's favored or at least close to even in the 3-inning market, but also has a weaker full-game line. This is where you can take advantage of the promo.
For example, today Kansas City is a great candidate. They are listed at +110 to win the 3-inning money line and -190 to win the game. Converting those into probabilities gives, they have roughly a 47.6% chance to lead after 3 innings and about a 65.5% chance they win the game. This kind of disparity is exactly what you want to target. It increases the likelihood that your team could start strong, giving you a solid shot at the Bonus Bet if they end up faltering later on.
But what are the chances you either win the game or get your free bet back?
To calculate that, you combine the probabilities of either winning the game or leading after 3 innings and then losing the game.
Chance of winning the game: 65.5%
Chance of leading after 3 innings but losing the game: 16.4%
Add those up, and you get an 81.9% chance of either winning the bet outright or getting the free bet back. That’s a pretty solid cushion to work with.
Structuring Your Bet:
Single Bet Approach: Start by finding a favorable 3-inning moneyline play, preferably a team with a strong starting pitcher who can dominate early. In this case, Kansas City’s +110 in the 3-inning market is enticing given their lower odds to win the whole game. If they jump out to an early lead but lose late, you’re getting that Bonus Bet back.
Parlay Option: If you’re feeling more adventurous, consider a parlay with multiple moneyline picks that fit this strategy. Remember, if one leg loses but that team led after 3 innings, you’ll still get the Bonus Bet. However, I almost always just take a straight moneyline version of this promo. It’s simpler, and it allows you to focus on finding the best value without adding the complexity of multiple legs.
A quick note on 3-inning lines: I don’t know of any sharp sources for 3-inning lines, so your best bet is to find the market average. Compare a few books if you can, and go with the most favorable number you see.
Understanding the Expected Value
The beauty of this promo is that it adds a layer of insurance to your bet, reducing overall risk. If you’re selective with your picks, especially focusing on teams with favorable 3-inning odds, you could end up with a few Bonus Bets to rework into other profitable plays.
This promo can be a sneaky way to boost your bankroll with some smart betting. But even though the max is $100, make sure you’re betting responsibly—I wouldn’t recommend going over 1 unit (1u) on any of these plays.
So, opt in, hunt for those early-game advantages, and leverage that 3-inning market to your benefit.
Stick around for more tips and strategies as we continue to break down these promos. Happy betting, and here’s to positive variance!
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