A Beginner's Guide Part 7 - Mastering the Art of Devigging
Earning Your First Belt
Welcome back, everyone! If you’re new here, I highly recommend checking out A Beginner's Guide: Part 6 (and all my other posts in this series while you’re at it) for an overview of maximizing your sports betting strategies. Today, we're diving into the world of devigging using Crazy Ninja Mike (CNM) Devigger, a powerful tool that can significantly enhance your EV betting experience.
What is Devigging?
Before we get into the nitty-gritty, let’s break down what devigging is. In simple terms, devigging is the process of removing the bookmaker’s margin (also known as the vig or juice) from the odds to find the true probability of an event. This helps you identify bets that offer value, giving you an edge over the sportsbook. Think of it as peeling back the layers to find the real odds hidden beneath the bookmaker’s margin.
Settings
At the top settings, you can enter your bankroll and Kelly multipliers. As I advocated in an earlier post, I recommend using a Quarter Kelly approach. That said, you’d want your multiplier to be 0.25.
Devigging Methods
Choosing the right devigging method depends on market circumstances and your historical success rates. Here’s a breakdown of the most common methods:
Multiplicative Method
The vig is spread proportionally among each outcome, so higher implied probability (lower odds) get more vig. This method is simple and standard but may not account for bettors' tendencies to overbet long-shots and underbet favorites.
Additive Method
The vig is divided equally among all outcomes, balancing the bias towards overbetting long-shots. However, it can sometimes result in negative probabilities for underdogs.
Shin Method
Uses an iterative algorithm to correct the favorite-longshot bias, offering improved predictive accuracy. For two-outcome markets, it’s equivalent to the Additive method.
Power Method
This method raises probabilities to a constant power, maintaining them within the 0 to 1 range. It can overcompensate for betting biases, adjusting long-shot probabilities more than Shin.
I almost always use and advocate you using “The Worst-Case Method.” This is a conservative approach and works best for most cases.
Getting Started with Crazy Ninja Mike Devigger
Basic Tips
Slash for Sides: Use a "/" to separate sides of a market.
Comma for Legs: Use a comma to separate different legs of your bet.
First Number: The first number in a leg represents the side of the market you’re betting on.
Final Odds: This is where you would put your bet.
Example: Parlaying the Phillies and Tigers
Let’s say you love the Phillies parlayed with the Tigers today and want to place this bet on DraftKings.
Here are the current odds for each leg of the parlay on Pinnacle:
Here’s how that parlay looks on DraftKings:
Here's how you would enter that parlay in the Devigger.
Understanding The Results
Let’s break down the information step-by-step to make it clearer.
Line 1: Leg #1 (-164) — The Phillies Leg on Pinnacle
Leg #1 (-164): This is the first part of your parlay, with odds of -164.
Market Juice = 2.1%: This is the bookmaker's margin or profit built into the odds, in this case, 2.1%.
Fair Value = -155 (60.8%): The true odds without the bookmaker’s margin, which is -155. This implies a 60.8% chance of this outcome happening.
Line 2: Leg #2 (-167) — The Twins Leg of Pinnacle
Same concept as above but for leg #2 of the parlay.
Final Odds — Draftkings Parlay
Final Odds (+149): The combined odds offered by DraftKings for the parlay you entered.
Σ(Market Juice) = 4.19%: The total market juice for the final odds, combining the margins from both legs.
Fair Value = +168 (37.3%): The true combined odds without the bookmaker’s margin, which is +168, implying a 37.3% chance of this parlay happening.
Summary — Evaluation of the Play against Sharp Books
EV% (Expected Value) = -7.2%: This is the expected return on your bet. A negative value indicates that, over time, you can expect to lose money on this bet.
FB (Free Bet Conversion Rate) = 58.5%: This is the free bet conversion rate for this play. I advocate for a minimum of 90% to be a good option for a free bet, so this is not close to being a good bet.
As you can see, this is not a bet you’d want to take on DraftKings due to the negative expected value and low free bet conversion rate.
Additional Notes on Using the Devigger
Multi-Way Markets: For markets with multiple sides (like a Golf Tournament Winner), separate all sides with a "/" like this: +500/+750/+2000/etc. With golf tournaments, the list could get really lengthy.
Boost: If you are adding a boost to a play, signify that in the “Boost” text box. If it’s a simple boost (like +200), you can just update the final odds to reflect that. If it’s a percentage boost, I recommend letting the devigger do the math for you.
Free Bet Text Box: I rarely use this as the results from the devigging include an FB% that I go off of.
I won’t be able to get into everything here, so below are some video tutorials to walk you through more complicated entries.
Video Tutorials
For those who prefer visual learning, here are some excellent video tutorials:
Devigger Tutorial Part 1 - Intro
Covers the basics like normal 2-way devigs, boosts, devig methods, free bet EV conversions, parlays and multi-way pre-made markets
Devigger Tutorial Part 2 - Correlation
Covers correlation and SGPs
Devigger Tutorial Part 3 - Functions: AVG, MAX, MIN, HIT
Covers how to use those functions
Devigger Tutorial Part 4 - Comments, Sharing Devigs, Implied EV%, Juice Estimation, INT Function
Covers how to use those features and functions
Devigger Tutorial Part 5 - OR operators
Covers how to use the different OR operators for mutually exclusive and independent events
Combo Breaker Tutorial Part 1 - Basics
Covers the basics of how to use the Combo Breaker
Wrapping Up
Mastering the Crazy Ninja Mike Devigger can significantly improve your sports betting strategy by helping you identify true value bets. Whether you’re working with SGPs, multi-way markets, or dealing with juice, the devigger has you covered. Be sure to check out the video tutorials for a more in-depth understanding, and remember to use the quick tips provided here as your starting point.
Happy betting, and may you experience a day of positive variance!
Strange, fixed the links!
Great article but the tutorial links at the end lead to nowhere, please fix as I want to see the videos